I am trying to make sense of the potential impacts of the Trump tariffs and his larger agenda. He seems to have an escalating set of...

A meeting room set up for FARSI Method. The system map is visible as participants trace through the impacts of change drivers in different scenarios ​The insights from cognitive science and decades of experience helping people think about the future shaped my thinking on the original Horizons Foresight Method (which won the Association of Professional Futurists award for Most Significant Futures papers in 2018) as well as the updated Foresight as Rigourous and Systematic Imag

This scenario method assists in understanding how a whole system could evolve, and the surprises, challenges and opportunities could emerge. It provides the "scoffolding" to explore the potential for emergent behavior. It does require more time and effort than many methods. It is designed for very complex public policy problems where due diligence is expected - bearing in mind that we cannot predict the future. The early steps in the FARSI Method are the best preparation. Pho